Editor's note: China's photovoltaic installed capacity has reached 190.19gw by the end of September this year. At present, bnef has lowered its forecast for China's new installed capacity. A financial engineer in the industry said: it is never healthy for the solar energy market to rely on one or two countries.
According to the latest statistics of China's photovoltaic installed capacity, by the end of September, the total installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in China was 190.19gw, up 15% year on year, with an increase of 15.99gw. In the middle of this year, according to the official prediction of the Energy Bureau, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic will be 45-50gw this year.
According to the installed capacity data at the end of September, bnef has lowered its forecast for China's new installed capacity, believing that China will install about 28 GW in 2019.
However, due to the outbreak of overseas market, bner still believes that 121gw of new photovoltaic installation will be added in 2019, which is consistent with the global 115-120gw predicted by the industry in July. According to this calculation, the new installed capacity overseas this year should exceed the forecast by 15-20gw.
"China is an installed power, but it is slowing down," Jenny chase, a financial analyst at Bloomberg new energy, said in an interview on Monday. It's never healthy for the solar market to rely on one or two countries. "
When we say good things about politics, we have to break our promise
Due to the rapid elimination of backward fossil energy capacity in the past few years, the expansion of installed capacity of renewable energy such as photovoltaic and wind energy is too fast. Until a week ago, China allocated subsidies for photovoltaic power generation up to November 2017. Due to the serious shortage of compensation, the power grid may be overburdened with advance payment. Last week's "Shanghai power grid company plans to suspend advance payment of photovoltaic subsidies" nearly triggered a public opinion crisis. State Grid Shanghai first refuted the rumors and put out the fire, which relieved the nervous photovoltaic industry.
The efforts of China's solar energy industry once served as a model for new energy applications to spur the world and lead the development of renewable energy. However, after the new deal cut subsidies suddenly and suspended the approval of some projects on May 31 last year, the installed capacity of newly added photovoltaic fell sharply. Although the Energy Bureau has adjusted the plan this year, and once again supported the construction through subsidies, and pointed out in the general situation of national subsidy bidding for photovoltaic power generation projects in 2019: this year, the construction scale of photovoltaic power generation projects is about 50 million kilowatts, and it is estimated that the installed capacity that can be built and connected to the grid within this year is about 40-45 million kilowatts, so the industry thinks that the photovoltaic installed capacity in 2019 must be Politics. But China's photovoltaic industry, which does not speak politics, is expected to slap the Energy Bureau hard. It is also believed that the new deal was only announced by the Energy Bureau in July, which made it impossible for investors to make investment decisions quickly. Even if there is a 12.31 subsidy period, there is no estimate of this year's rush to install, and there is no possibility of "later".
With China's photovoltaic installation in recession, the hope of global solar energy prosperity and breakthrough has become a bubble.
According to bnef's latest estimates, China will install about 28 gigawatts of new photovoltaic this year, down nearly 37% from the previous year. Originally expected to be 39 GW in the third quarter, it is now down 11% year-on-year.
Moreover, weak demand also increased downward pressure on the price of photovoltaic cells and components in the fourth quarter. The day before yesterday, Tongwei announced the price of battery chip in December! Polycrystalline continued to reduce sharply! A report entitled "market turbulence" believed that almost all products, especially batteries and components, faced oversupply at the end of this year and next year.
According to statistics, Brazil, Vietnam and some European countries have made up for the lack of new installed capacity in China and become the highlight of global photovoltaic this year. From January to August, the export volume of China's solar energy enterprises was 13.2 billion US dollars, nearly 13.6 billion US dollars in 2018.
In July, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association predicted that the global installed capacity of 115gw in the whole year is based on the digital foundation of 40gw in China. According to the 121gw forecast still adhered to by Bloomberg new energy finance and economics, the overseas installed capacity this year increased by 15-20gw than expected.